48
Eric Holt-Giménez, Annie Shattuck, Miguel Altieri, et al., We Already Grow Enough Food for 10 Billion People and Still Cant End Hunger, Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 36, no. 6 (2012): 59598, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10440046.2012.695331. The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, 82.
49
The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, 7677.
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IPCC, Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development, In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report. 2018. Nordhaus, William. Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies. 2018. doi:10.3386/w22933.41. Though some experts call the country Democratic Republic of the Congo, in part because there is a different, smaller nation called Republic of the Congo, many in the DRC refer to it simply as the Congo.
51
For more information on the Great African War and its impact on the Congo, see David Van Reybrouck, Congo: The Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2010) and Gérard Prunier, Africas World Wars: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2010), 338.
52
Democratic Republic of the Congo Travel Advisory, U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs, January 2, 2020, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-travel-advisory.html.
53
Access to Electricity (% of Population): Congo, Rep., Congo, Dem. Rep, World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org.
54
Africa Energy Outlook: A Focus on Energy Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa(Paris: International Energy Agency, 2014), 32.
55
Pauline Bax and Williams Clowes, Three Gorges Has Nothing on ChinaBacked Dam to Power Africa, Bloomberg, August 5, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com.
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Katharine J. Mach, Caroline M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger et al., Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict, Nature 571 (2019): 19397, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6.
57
Globally, medium to high levels of land degradation are related to increased conflict, as are very high levels of water scarcity, but the relative increases in risk are quite small. Increasing levels of land degradation increase the risk of conflict from a baseline of 1 percent to between 24 percent. Hedrik Urdal, People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict Revisited, Journal of Peace Research 42 (2005): 41734, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089. Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (20082009): 2733, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.
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Michael Oppenheimer, Bruce C. Glavovic, Jochen Hinkel et al., Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf, 321445.
59
Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (20082009): 2733, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.
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David Van Reybrouk, Congo: An Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2014).
61
World Bank, GDP (current US$)-Congo, Dem. Rep., World Bank, accessed January 15, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org.
62
Ibid.
63
Peter Jones and David Smith, UN Report on Rwanda Fuelling Congo Conflict Blocked by US, The Guardian, June 20, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com.
64
Tom Wilson, David Blood, and David Pilling, Congo Voting Data Reveal Huge Fraud in Poll to Replace Kabila, Financial Times, January 15, 2019, https://www.ft.com.
65
Myles Allen and Sarah Lunnon, interviewed by Emma Barrett, Newsnight, BBC, aired October 10, 2019, on BBC.
66
Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.
67
Gaia Vince, The Heat Is On over the Climate Crisis. Only Radical Measures Will Work, The Guardian, May 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com.
68
Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.
69
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
70
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
71
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
72
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
73
Hans van Meijl et al., Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050, Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (2018), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/17489326/aabdc4/pdf.
74
This occurs because land-based mitigation leads to less land availability for food production, potentially lower food supply, and therefore food price increases. Cheikh Mbow et al., Chapter Five: Food Security, in V. Masson-Delmotte et al., eds., Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (IPCC, 2019), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf.
75
FAO, The Future of Food and Agriculture Alternative Pathways to 2050 (Rome: United Nations, 2018), accessed December 16, 2019, http://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/food-agriculture-projections-to-2050/en.
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Roger Pielke, Jr., I Am Under Investigation, The Climate Fix (blog), February 25, 2015, https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/i-am-under-investigation.
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Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming (New York: Basic Books, 2011), 162.
78
Laurens M. Bouwer, Ryan P. Crompton, Eberhard Faust et al., Confronting Disaster Losses, Science 318 (December 2007): 753, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5871449_Disaster_management_Confronting_disaster_losses. Peter Höppe and Roger Pielke, Jr., eds., Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses: Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections, May 25-26, 2006, Hohenkammer, Germany, https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/research_areas/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/ccdl_workshop_brochure.pdf.
79
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
80
Jessica Weinkle, Chris Landsea, Douglas Collins, et al., Normalized Hurricane Damage in the Continental United States 19002017, Nature Sustainability 1 (2018): 808813, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-01652; Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
81
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
82
Pielke cited two studies for this claim: Thomas Knutson, Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan et al., Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution, American Meteorological Society, October 2019, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1, and 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr. Roger Pielke, Jr., When Is Climate Change Just Weather? What Hurricane Dorian Coverage Mixes Up, on Purpose, Forbes, September 4, 2019, https://www.forbes.com.
83
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 170172.
84
Roger Pielke, Jr., My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic, Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2016, https://www.wsj.com.
85
Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_Full_Report-1.pdf, 9.
86
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 175.
87
Roger Pielke, Jr., Disasters Cost More than Ever but Not Because of Climate Change, FiveThirtyEight, March 19, 2014, https://fivethirtyeight.com.
88
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Wont Tell You About Global Warming, 174.
89
Roger Pielke, Jr., Disasters Cost More than Ever but Not Because of Climate Change.
90
Roger Pielke, Jr., Disasters Cost More than Ever but Not Because of Climate Change.
91
Robinson Meyer, The Oceans We Know Wont Survive Climate Change, Atlantic, September 25, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com.
92
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
93
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
94
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
95
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
96
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
97
Project Information Document (PID) Concept Stage: DRC Growth with Governance in the Mineral Sector, Report no. AB3834, World Bank, March 24, 2009, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/341011468234300132/pdf/Project0Inform1cument1Concept0Stage.pdf. Ernest Mpararo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Transparency International, 2018, https://www.transparency.org/country/COD. For an overview of Congos history and the role of colonialism and decolonization, see Van Reybrouck, Congo. Congo ranks 161st out of 180 (the highest) in terms of perceived corruption.
98
Top 20 Deadliest California Wildfires, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, September 27, 2019, https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5512/top20_deadliest.pdf.
99
Jon E. Keeley and Alexandra D. Syphard, Twenty-first Century California, USA, Wildfires: Fuel-Dominated vs. Wind-Dominated Fires, Fire Ecology 15, article no. 24, July 18, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0041-0.
100
Jon E. Keeley and Alexandra D. Syphard, Historical Patterns of Wildfire Ignition Sources in California Ecosystems, International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, no. 12 (2018): 78199, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18026.
101
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
102
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
103
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
104
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
105
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
106
David Packham, interviewed by Andrew Bolt, The Bolt Report, Sky News Australia, November 11, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6RrgBrb6R8.
107
S. Ellis, P. Kanowski, and R.J. Whelan, National Inquiry on Bushfire Mitigation and Management, University of Wollongong Research Online, March 31, 2004, https://ro.uow.edu.au. Luke Henrique-Gomes, Bushfires death toll rises to 33 after body found in burnt-out house near Moruya, Guardian, January 24, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com. Bushfire Southeast Victoria, Australia Institute for Disaster Resilience, https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-south-east-victoria. Bernard Teague, Ronald McLeod, and Susan Pascoe, Final Report Summary, Victorian Brushfires Royal Commission, 2009. http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf. // Black Friday bushfires, 1939, Australia Institute for Disaster Resilience, https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-black-friday-victoria-1939.
108
Lauren Jeffrey (British YouTuber) in discussion with the author, December 3, 2019.
109
Dan McDougall, Ecological grief: Greenland residents traumatised by climate emergency, Guardian, August 12, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com; Mary Ward, Climate anxiety is real, and young people are feeling it, Sydney Morning Herald, September 20, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au.
110
Susan Clayton et al., Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance, American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, March 2017, https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2017/03/mental-health-climate.pdf.
111
Reuters, One in five UK children report nightmares about climate change, March 2, 2020.
112
Sonia Elks, Suffering Eco-anxiety over Climate Change, Say Psychologists, Reuters, September 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com.
113
Rupert Read, How I Talk with Children About Climate Breakdown, YouTube (video), August 18, 2019, https://youtu.be/6Lt0jCDtYSY.
114
Zion Lights, interviewed by Andrew Neil, The Andrew Neil Show, BBC, aired October 10, 2019, on BBC, https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=pO1TTcETyuU&feature=emb_logo.
115
Здесь и далее: по состоянию на июль 2022 года Facebook, Instagram, Twitter и Linkedin внесены в реестр запрещенных сайтов на территории РФ.
116
Lauren Jeffrey, An Open Letter to Extinction Rebellion, YouTube (video), October 21, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyYPLkWV3l0.
117
Peter James Spielmann, UN Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked, Associated Press, June 29, 1989, https://apnews.com.
118
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Uninhabitable Earth Future Imperfect, Financial Times, March 8, 2019, https://www.ft.com.
119
Allyson Chiu, It Snuck up on Us: Scientists Stunned by City-Killer Asteroid That Just Missed Earth, «The Washington Post», July 26, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com.
120
Nick Perry, Death toll from New Zealand volcano rises to 21 as victim dies from injuries nearly two months later, Independent, January 29, 2020, https://www.independent.co.uk.
121
Stealth Transmission Fuels Fast Spread of Coronavirus Outbreak, Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, February 26, 2020, https://www.mailman.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/stealth-transmission-fuels-fast-spread-coronavirus-outbreak.
122
Kerry Emanuel (climate scientist, MIT) in discussion with the author, November 15, 2019.
123
International Energy Agency, Global CO2 Emissions in 2019, February 11, 2020. European Commission, Progress Made in Cutting Emissions, accessed March 2, 2020. Carbon Brief, Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14 % since 2005, August 15, 2017. BP Energy Data, 2019.
124
USA emissions from EIA, US Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption (from 1973), EIA, accessed February 1, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/environment/data.php. UK emissions from UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, National Statistics: Provisional UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions National Statistics 2018, UK government website, March 28, 2019, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-uk-greenhouse-gas-emis sions-national-statistics-2018.
125
Justin Ritchie (@jritch), With this in mind, it is fair to say that the global energy system today, as modeled by IEA, is tracking much closer to 2˚ of warming this century than previously thought. Thread: 5/11, Twitter, November 18, 2019, 9:37 a.m., https://twitter.com/jritch/status /1196482584710004736.