Probabilistic Economic Theory - Anatoly Kondratenko 4 стр.

As we know, market agents are the buyers and sellers of goods and commodities, and as such are the major players in the market economy. They strongly interact with each other and with the institutions and the markets external environment including other market economies. They continuously make decisions concerning the prices and quantities of good, and buy or sell those in the market. All the market agents actions govern the outcome of the market, which is the essence of the agent principle. We believe the agents to behave to a certain extent in a deterministic way, striving to achieve their definite market goals. This means that the behavior of market agents is, in turn, governed by the strict the economic laws in the market. The fact that these laws have until now been of a descriptive nature in classical economic theory, and they have not yet been expressed in a precise mathematic language, is not of key importance in this case. What is really important is that we believe all the market agents to act according to the economic laws of social cooperation that can be approximately described with the help of the market-based trade maximization principle.

Every market agent acts in the market in accordance with the rule of obtaining maximum profit, benefit, or some other criterion of optimality. In this respect, we believe the many-agent market economic systems to resemble the physical many-particle systems where all the particles interact and move in physical space. This is also in accordance with the same system-based maximization principle, such as the least action principle in classical mechanics which is applied to the whole physical system under study. The analogous situation exists in quantum mechanics (see below in the Part F).

The main drive of our research was to take the opportunity to create dynamic physical models for market economic systems. We construct these physical economic models by analogy with physics, or more precisely by analogy with theoretical models of the physical systems, consisting of formal interacting particles in formal external fields or external environments [1]. Let us stress that these particles are fictitious; they do not really exist in nature. Therefore, the physical systems mentioned above are also fictitious and they do not exist in nature either. They are indeed only imagined constructions and served simply as patterns for constructing the physical economic models. Thus, these physical economic models consist of the economic subsystem, or simply the economy or the market. It contains a certain number of buyers and sellers, as well as its institutional and external environment with certain interactions between market agents, and between the market agents and the market institutional and external environment. Moreover, according to the dynamic and evolutionary principle we assume that equations of motion, derived in physics for physical systems in the physical space, can be creatively used to construct approximate equations of motion for the corresponding physical models of economic systems in the particular formal economic spaces.

Let us briefly give the following reasons to substantiate such an ab initio approach for the one-good, one-buyer, and one-seller market economy. Let price functions p

1

1

1

1

By setting out desired prices and quantities this way, buyers and sellers take part in the market process and act as homo negotians (a negotiating man) in the physical modeling, aiming to maximum satisfaction in their attempts to make a profit on the market. This is the first market equilibrium price pE

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

This agents motion reflects the market process, which consists in changing continuously by the market agents their quotations. Note, we depicted in Fig. 1 a certain standard situation on the market, in which the buyer and the seller encountered deliberately at the moment of the time t

1

1

1

1

Up to the moment of t

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Fig. 1. Trajectory diagram displaying dynamics of the classical two-agent market economy in the one-dimensional economic price space (above) and in the economic quantity space (below). Dimension of time t is year, dimension of the price independent variable P is $/ton, and dimension of the quantity independent variable Q is ton.

A voluntary transaction is accomplished to the mutual satisfaction. Further, the market again is immersed into the state of rest until the next harvest and its display to sale next year at the moment in time of t2. Harvest in this season grew, therefore q

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Conventionally, we will describe the state of the market at every moment in time by the set of real market prices and quantities of real deals which really take place in the market. As we can see from the Fig. 1 real deals occur in the market in our case only at the moments t

1

2

In this formula, we used several new notions and definitions, whose meanings need explanation. Let us make these explanations in sufficient detail in view of their importance for understanding the following presentation of physical economics. First, in contemporary economic theory, the concept of supply and demand (S&D below) plays one of the central roles. Intuitively, at the qualitative descriptive level, all economists comprehend what this concept means. Complexities and readings appear only in practice with the attempts to give a mathematical treatment to these notions and to develop an adequate method of their calculation and measurement. For this purpose, the various theories contain different mathematical models of S&D that have been developed within the framework. In these theories, differing so-called S&D functions are used to formally define and quantitatively describe S&D.

In this book, we will also repeatedly encounter the various mathematical representations of this concept in different theories, which compose physical economics, namely, classical economy, probability economics, and quantum economy.

Even within the framework of one theory, it is possible to give several formal definitions of S&D functions supplementing each other. For example, within the framework of our two-agent classical economy, we can define total S&D functions as follows:

Thus, we have defined at each moment of time t the total demand function of the buyer, D

1

0

1

0

The last observation here concerns a formula for evaluating the volume of trade in the market, MTV(tiE), between the buyer and the seller where they come to a mutual understanding and accomplishment of transaction at the equilibrium point Ei. It is clear that to obtain the trade volume (total value of all the transactions in this case), it is possible to simply multiply the equilibrium values of price and quantity that are derived from the above formula. The dimension of the trade volume is of course a product of the dimensions of price and quantity; in this example this is $. The same is valid for the dimensions of the total S&D, D

1

0

1

0

Fig. 2. S&D diagram displaying dynamics of the classical two-agent market economy in the time-S&D functions coordinate system [T, S&D], within the first time interval [t

1

1

4.2. The Main Market Rule Sell all Buy at all

Having a method to more or less evaluate the price quantitatively is always advantageous, as it helps us to somewhat predict market prices. Using the main rule of work on the market is used to this end, and this strategic rule of decision making can be briefly formulated as follows: Sell all Buy at all. This main market rule indicates the following different strategies of market actions (action on the market is setting out quotations) for both the seller and the buyer. For the seller this strategy consists in striving to sell all the goods planned to sale at the maximally possible highest prices. Whereas for the buyer this strategy consists in the fact that it will expend all the money planned for the purchase of goods and try to purchase in this case as much as possible at the possible smallest price. Thus, the main market rule leads to the corresponding algorithms of the actions of agents on the markets, which are graphically represented in the form of agents trajectories in the pictures. The point of intersection and the respective trade volume in the market, MTV, are easily found with the help of the following mathematical formulas:

It is natural here to name D

1

0

1

By analogy with classical mechanics, we can treat these prices and quantity functions as the trajectories of movement of the market agents in the two-dimensional economic PQ-space as it was displayed in Fig. 3.

In principle, this representation gives nothing new in comparison with Figs. 1 and 2. Nevertheless, there is one interesting nuance here, in which the similarity of this diagram can be compared to the traditional picture in the conceptual neoclassical model of S&D. We will examine this question below. But let us now focus attention on the following nuances in the picture in Fig. 3. First, it is clearly shown by the arrows, that the buyer and the seller seemingly move towards each other on the price, with the seller reducing it, and the buyer, on the contrary, increasing it. From this, we can reflect on the illustration of normal market negotiation processes. Secondly, usually the quotations of quantities are reduced during the process of negotiations both by the buyer and by the seller. Clearly, all agents want to purchase or to sell a smaller quantity of goods at the compromise market price than at the most desired, presented at the very beginning of trading.

Fig. 3. Dynamics of the classical two-agent market economy in the two-dimensional economic price-quantity space within the first time interval [t

1

1

And now we turn from the simplest economy to a more developed economy, in which the farmer and hunter gradually switch from the discrete trade system (one trade per year) to the continuous trade system on the market. Generally speaking, negotiations are conducted continuously and transactions are accomplished continuously, depending on the needs of the buyer and the seller. This would continue for many years. Taking into account this new long-term outlook it is expedient to change somewhat the method of describing the work of the market. Namely, by quotations of a quantity of goods, it is now more convenient to represent a quantity of goods during a specific and reasonable period of time, for example year, if the discussion deals with the long-standing work of the market. In this case the dimension of a quantity would be represented by ton/year. We show in Figs. 4, 5 how it is possible to graphically represent the work of the market over a long span of time. We see that before the establishment of equilibrium at point E, transactions were of course accomplished, but probably did not bring maximum satisfaction to the participants in the market. This would induce agents to continue to search for long-term compromises in prices and quantities. After reaching equilibrium, the volume of trade reaches a maximum, and participants in the market therefore attempt to further support this equilibrium.

Fig. 4. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the [T, P] and [T, Q] coordinate systems in the time interval t > tE.

Fig. 5. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the [T, S&D] coordinate system.

Here a fork appears in the following theory:  look at Figs. 5 and 6. If quotations cease to change, then the economy converts to a stationary state in which time appears to disappear. This is especially noticeable in Fig. 6, where this sort of stationary state is described by one point, E. We will label the economies in the stationary state simply the stationary economies. But if quotations vary with time, then the economy will be named the time-dependent or simply non-stationary economies. In Figs. 5 and 6 they are represented by two lines, which emanate from the equilibrium point E. If in this case the equilibrium quantity grows, then the economy is a growing one. But if it decreases, then the economy is falling one, which clearly is represented in Fig. 5. As a rule, in such cases, the total S&D behave similarly and this can be easily seen in Fig. 5. Let us note that their dimensions in this model have also changed, now equaling $ · ton/year.

Fig. 6. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the economic price-quantity space at t > tE.

4.3. The Many-Agent Market Economies

Now we will increase the level of complexity of the classical economies by examining how it is possible to incorporate several buyers and sellers into the theory. It is understandable that each market agent will have its own trajectories in the PQ-space. In principle, they can vary greatly. There is good reason to believe that there is much similarity in the behavior of all buyers in general. The same is valid of course for all sellers. The reason is as follows. There is the intense information exchange on the market, by means of which the coordination of actions is achieved among the buyers, among the sellers, as well as among the buyers and sellers. This coordination is carried out to assist the market in reaching its maximum volume of trade, since it is precisely during the process of trading that the last point is placed in the long process of preliminary business operations: production, financing, logistics, etc. This is exactly what we would have referred to earlier as the social cooperation of the markets agents. For example, it is natural to expect that all buyers, from one side, and sellers, from other side, behave on the market in approximately the same way, since they all are guided in their behavior on the market by one and the same main rule of work on the market: Sell all Buy at all.

Hence it is possible to draw from the above discussion the following important conclusion: the trajectories of all buyers in the P-space will be close to each other; therefore, the totality of all buyers trajectories can be graphically represented in the form of a relatively narrow pipe, in which will be plotted the trajectories of all buyers. It is also possible to represent all price trajectories of the buyers by means of a single averaged trajectory, pD(t), which we will do below. We will do the same for the sellers, and their single averaged price trajectory we will designate as pS(t).

We have a completely different situation with the quantity trajectories, since each market agent can have the very different quantities, bearing in mind the fact that the behavior of the buyers (sellers) curves can be relatively similar to each other. Nevertheless, we can establish some regularities in the behavior of the whole market, being guided by common sense and the logical method. Since the quotations of quantities are real in the classical models, we can add them in order to obtain the quantity quotations of the whole market, qD(t) и qS(t). However one should do this separately for the buyers and sellers as follows:

where summing up of quantity quotations is executed formally for the market, which consists of N buyers and M sellers. In this case we understand that for the whole market we can draw all the same pictures as displayed in Figs. 16 for the two-agent market. Thus, for instance, we can represent the dynamics of our many-agent market by the help of the following pictures in Fig. 7. In it, the dynamics of many-agent market are depicted at the moment of equilibrium (curves qD(pD) and qS(pS)), as well as dynamics of the stationary economy (point E) and dynamics of the non-stationary growing and falling economies.

Fig. 7. Dynamics of the many-agent market economy in the price-quantity space. qD(pD) and qS(pS) are quantity trajectories reflecting dynamics of market agents quotations in time up to the moment of establishment of the equilibrium and making transactions at the equilibrium price.