Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Владимир Александрович Измайлов 10 стр.


William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About Americas Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).

122

Robert Huebscher, «Neil Howe The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning», Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.

123

См., напр.: W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 2657.

124

Ian Morris, «The Evolution of War», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). См. также: S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, «Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 5880.

125

Qiang Chen, «Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China», School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).

126

См., напр.: Michael J Storozum et al., «The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 10481128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China», Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.

127

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.

128

Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.

129

Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov, Secular Cycles (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).

130

Петр Турчин, Сергей Нефедов. Вековые циклы / Пер. С. Нефедова.

131

Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles, p. 314.

132

Peter Turchin, «Arise Cliodynamics» Nature 454 (2008), pp. 3435.

133

Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016), p. 11.

134

Peter Turchin et al., «Quantitative Historical Analysis Uncovers a Single Dimension of Complexity That Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization», PNAS 115, no. 2 (2018), pp. E144 E151.

135

Jaeweon Shin et al., «Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds in Holocene Social Evolution», Nature Communications 11, no. 2394 (2020), pp. 18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-16035-9.

136

Shin, «Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds», p. 7.

137

Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles.

138

Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 243f. См. также: Peter Turchin, «Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 17802010», Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 4 (July 2012), p. 12. См. также: Laura Spinney, «History as Science», Nature, August 2, 2012.

139

Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 72ff., 86ff., 91, 93, 104ff., 109f., 201239.

140

Turchin, Ages of Discord, fig. 6.1.

141

Ray Dalio, «The Changing World Order: Introduction», Principles (blog), https://www.principles.com/the-order/#introduction.

142

Dalio, «Changing World Order.»

143

Michael Sheetz, «Ray Dalio Says Cash Is Trash and Advises Investors Hold a Global, Diversified Portfolio», CNBC, January 21, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/ray-cash-is-trash-as-everybody-market.html.

144

Andrea Saltelli et al., «Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto», Nature, June 24, 2020. См. также: D. Sarewitz, R. A. Pielke, and R. Byerly, Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000).

145

Джаред Даймонд. Коллапс. Почему одни общества приходят к процветанию, а другие к гибели / Пер. О. Жаден, А. Михайловой, И. Николаева. М., 2016.

146

Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fall or Survive (London: Penguin, 2011), p. 11.

147

Джаред Даймонд. Указ. соч.

148

Diamond, Collapse, p. 509.

149

Джаред Даймонд. Указ. соч.

150

Diamond, Collapse, pp. 118f.

151

Benny Peiser, «From Genocide to Ecocide: The Rape of Rapa Nui», Energy and Environment 16, nos. 34 (2005); Terry L. Hunt and Carl P. Lipo, «Late Colonization of Easter Island», Science, March 9, 2006; Hunt and Lipo, The Statues That Walked: Unraveling the Mystery of Easter Island (Berkeley, CA: Counterpoint Press, 2012). Ответ Даймонда: Mark Lynas, «The Myths of Easter Island Jared Diamond Responds», September 22, 2011, Mark Lynas (blog), https://www.marklynas.org/2011/09/the-responds/. См. также: Paul Bahn and John Flenley, «Rats, Men or Dead Ducks?» Current World Archaeology 49 (2017), pp. 8f.

152

Catrine Jarman, «The Truth About Easter Island», The Conversation, October 12, 2017, https://theconversation.com/the-its-85563.

153

Джаред Даймонд. Кризис. Каков механизм преодоления кризиса? / Пер. В. Желнинова. М., 2020.

154

Jared Diamond, Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change (London: Allen Lane, 2019).

155

David Mamet, «The Code and the Key», National Review, May 14, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/01/the-the-key/.

156

Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., 1989.

157

Aeschylus, Agamemnon, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 599, Kindle. [На русском языке: Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., Наука, 1989. С. 105.]

158

Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 599, 617. [На русском языке: Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., Наука, 1989. С. 106107.]

159

Эсхил. Указ. соч.

160

Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 689. [На русском языке: Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., Наука, 1989. С. 111.]

161

Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 727, 748.

162

Там же.

163

Aeschylus, The Libation Bearers, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 1074, Kindle. [На русском языке: Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., Наука, 1989. С. 133.]

164

Эсхил. Указ. соч.

165

Aeschylus, The Kindly Ones, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 2029, Kindle. [На русском языке: Эсхил. Трагедии / Пер. Вяч. Иванова. М., Наука, 1989. С. 191193.]

166

Софокл. Драмы / Пер. Ф. Зелинского. М., 1990.

167

Sophocles, Oedipus Rex, trans. Francis Storr (London: Heinemann, 1912). [На русском языке: Софокл. Драмы / Пер. Ф. Зелинского. М., Наука, 1990. С. 6.]

168

Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018).

169

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 171176.

170

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 177181.

171

Nick Bostrom, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (New York: Routledge, 2002); Charles S. Taber and Milton Lodge, «Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs», American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 3 (2006), pp. 755769.

172

Фрэнк Хейнеман Найт. Риск, неопределенность и прибыль / Пер. М. Каждана. М., 2003.

173

Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921). См. также: John A. Kay and Mervyn A. King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (New York: W. W. Norton, 2020).

174

Полное название «Общая теория занятости, процента и денег».

175

John Maynard Keynes, «The General Theory of Employment», Quarterly Journal of Economics 51, no. 2 (1937), p. 214.

176

Израильский фунт национальная валюта Израиля в 19521980 годах.

177

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, «Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk», Econometrica 47, no. 2 (March 1979), pp. 263292.

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