235
Beth E. Haverkamp, "Confirmatory Bias in Hypothesis Testing for Client-Identified and Counselor Self-generated Hypotheses", Journal of Counseling Psychology 40, no. 3 (July 1993): 303-15.
236
David L. Hamilton and Terrence L. Rose, "Illusory Correlation and the Maintenance of Stereotypic Beliefs", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 5 (1980): 832-45; Galen V. Bodenhausen and Roberts. Wyer, "Effects of Stereotypes on Decision Making and Information-Processing Strategies", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 48, no. 2 (1985): 267-82; and C. Stangorand D. N. Ruble, "Strength of Expectancies and Memory for Social Information: What We Remember Depends on How Much We Know", Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 25, no. 1 (1989): 18-35.
237
Pierre-Simon de Laplace, quoted in Stigler, Statistics on the Table, p. 56.
238
James Gleick, Chaos: Making a New Science (New York: Penguin, 1987); see chap. 1.
239
Max Born, Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1948), p. 47. Борн имел в виду природу в общем и квантовую теорию в частности
240
The Pearl Harbor analysis is from Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Palo Alto, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1962).
241
Richard Henry Tawney, The Agrarian Problem in the Sixteenth Century (1912; repr., New York: Burt Franklin, 1961).
242
Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor, p. 387.
243
The description of the events at Three Mile Island is from Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (Princeton, N .J.: Princeton University Press, 1999); and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "Fact Sheet on the Three Mile Island Accident", http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html.
244
Perrow, Normal Accidents.
245
W. Brian Arthur, "Positive Feedbacks in the Economy", Scientific American, February 1990, pp. 92-99.
246
Matthew J. Salganik, Peter Sheridan Dodds, and Duncan J. Watts, "Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market", Science 311 (February 10, 2006); and Duncan J. Watts, "Is Justin Timberlake a Product of Cumulative Advantage?" New York Times Magazine, April 15, 2007.
247
Mlodinow, "Meet Hollywood's Latest Genius."
248
John Steele Gordon and Michael Maiello, "Pioneers Die Broke", Forbes, December 23, 2002; and "The Man Who Could Have Been Bill Gates", Business-Week, October 25, 2004.
249
Floyd Norris, "Trump Deal Fails, and Shares Fall Again", New York Times, ]uly 6, 2007.
250
Melvin J. Lerner and Leo Montada, "An Overview: Advances in Belief in a Just World Theory and Methods", in Responses to Victimizations and Belief in a Just World, ed. Leo Montada and Melvin J. Lerner (New York: Plenum Press, 1998), pp. 1-7.
251
Melvin J. Lerner, "Evaluation of Performance as a Function of Performer's Reward and Attractiveness", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1 (1965): 355-60.
252
Melvin J. Lerner and С. H. Simmons, "Observer's Reactions to the 'Innocent Victim': Compassion or Rejection?" Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 4 (1966): 203-10.
253
Lerner, "Evaluation of Performance as a Function of Performer's Reward and Attractiveness."
254
Wendy Jean Harrod, "Expectations from Unequal Rewards", Social Psychology Quarterly 43, no. 1 (March 1980): 126-30; Penni A. Stewart and James C. Moore Jr., "Wage Disparities and Performance Expectations", Social Psychology Quarterly 55, no. 1 (March 1992): 78-85; and Karen S. Cook, "Expectations, Evaluations and Equity", American Sociological Review 40, no. 3 (June 1975): 372-88.
255
Lerner and Simmons, "Observer's Reactions to the 'Innocent Victim'".
256
David L. Rosenhan, "On Being Sane in Insane Places", Science 179 (January 19, 1973): 237-55.
257
Elisha Y. Babad, "Some Correlates of Teachers' Expectancy Bias", American Educational Research Journal 22, no. 2 (Summer 1985): 175-83.
258
Eric Asimov, "Spirits of the Times: A Humble Old Label Ices Its Rivals", New York Times, January 26, 2005.
259
Jonathan Calvert and Will Iredale, "Publishers Toss Booker Winners into the Reject Pile", London Sunday Times, January 1, 2006.
260
Peter Doskoch, "The Winning Edge", Psychology Today, November/ December 2005, p. 44.
261
Rosenhan, "On Being Sane in Insane Places", p. 243.